We report a theoretical study that elaborates the influence of the polarization state of both the pump and the probe pulse in ultrafast coherent vibrational ladder climbing experiments in the mid-infrared. Whereas a subensemble in a randomly oriented sample of molecules is excited by the pump pulse in this multiphoton process, further inhomogeneities such as the spatial profile of the laser beams, the longitudinal attenuation in the sample, and the probe beam polarization have to be taken into account. Analytical expressions for a density function describing the number of molecules that are exposed to an effective pump intensity are introduced, and the variation of the population distribution and the actual transient absorption signal in dependence on the polarization-state combinations for pump and probe pulse are discussed in detail. In simulations on the model system carboxy-hemoglobin, it is demonstrated that the polarization states play important roles both for exciting a certain population distribution and for actually observing it. In particular, it will be discussed under which conditions experimental data indicates a population inversion. Cop. 2011 American Chemical Society.